Syntax Idea: p�ISSN:
2684-6853
e-ISSN: 2684-883X�
Vol. 3, No.11, November 2021
ANALYSIS OF ABNORMAL RETURN AND VOLUME ACTIVITY OF
TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR SHARES IN INDONESIA BEFORE AND AFTER COVID-19
Sumadi, Dewi Tamara, Purba
Yudha Tama, William
Binus Business School, Binus
University Jakarta,Indonesia
Email: [email protected], [email protected],
[email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
The
study intends to investigate if there are significant differences in the
abnormal return and volume activity of telecommunication companies 90 exchange
days before and 90 exchange days after the announcement of the first Covid-19
infection in Indonesia with the Event Study method. The strategies used in this
study are quantitative methods with statistical description analysis using
different t-test with paired samples. The samples used in this study are EXCL,
ISAT, and TLKM companies included in the telecommunications infrastructure
sector and listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The research test
results showed that there was no significant difference in the abnormal return
and trading volume activity of telecommunication companies in Indonesia. It
proves that telecommunication companies' performance in Indonesia is not
affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, because the demand for internet and
telecommunication services has become the basic need for people to be able to
maintain their productivity at home.
Keywords:
abnormal return; trading volume activity; event study; telecommunication ��sector
Received:
2021-09-22; Accepted: 2021-10-05; Published: 2021-10-20
Introduction
The emergence of the Covid-19 virus pandemic has a
significant impact on all aspects of life, especially macro and microeconomic
also local and global economic conditions. The impact of this significant
decline was especially felt at the time of Covid-19 announcement as pandemic by
WHO on Wednesday March 11, 2020 after the number of infections worldwide
reached more than 121,000 cases (Utomo et al., 2020)
from the first reported case of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China on
November 17, 2019 (Yeremia, 2021).
Various steps were taken by each country to cope with
the spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019. The Indonesian government uses the
PSBB (Large-Scale Social Restriction) policy by closing tourist attractions, shopping
malls and eliminating teaching and learning activities in schools (Sutrisna, 2020)
after it was announced on March 2, 2020 the first Covid infection in Indonesia.
The overall restrictive policy made Indonesia's economy throughout 2020
contract by minus 2.07%, according to the BPS (Central Statistics Agency) (Candra et al., 2021).
If we doing in depth examination, there are businesses
in some industrial sectors that are severely affected, but there are also
industrial sectors that actually get opportunities from the implementation of
policies to combat the spread of Covid-19. For example, the telecommunications
sector which experiencing a significant increase in the demand for internet
services. It can be seen from the increase in new orders for Internet services
and cable TV companies (Indihome), which increase by
47% in 2020 due to the policy to conduct activities from home, such as studying
and working from home, said Ahmad Reza, SVP Corporate Communication and
Investor Relations (Utami, 2020). But when compared
to the rate of return on its shares, Telkom's share price (TLKM) actually
experienced a significant decrease of -19.18% with an increased share trading
volume, between January 2, 2020 and March 31, 2020 (first quarter of 2020).
Figure 1
Stock Price and Trading Volume Telkom Jan � Mar 2020
The
anomaly between the positive performance of telecommunications companies with
differences in abnormal return and stock trading volume makes this study
important to be analyzed. First, for financiers who want to invest in the stock
market during pandemic, this research could be used as consideration, so the
decision will be more accurate and avoiding them from potential losses. Second,
this study can become reference for researchers who want to conduct follow-up
studies, especially related to stocks abnormal returns and trading volume.
Third, this study can be a reference for the management of telecommunications
sector industry to make the right decisions in responding to stock market
volatility, especially in unexpected conditions such as the Covid-19 Pandemic.
According to (Rahmayani & Oktavilia, 2020)
stated that the existence and effect of the pandemic in Indonesian stock market
has negative effect. Their study utilized the Error Correction Model where the
stock market acted as an endogenous variable, and the exogeneous variables are commodity
price, pandemic and exchange rate, among others. The objective of this research
is to identify the effect of pandemic in telecommunication industry, as the
industry who reaps the benefit because the lockdown situation and everybody
works and school at homes.
�
Research Methods
Researchers
used the Event Study method in their research to compare AR and TVA of each
sample on -90 exchange days before October 22, 2019 and +90 exchange days after
the announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease 2019 infection in Indonesia
on March 2, 2020, which is July 16, 2020. The strategy used by researchers in this
study are quantitative method with statistical description test analysis using
daily secondary data (AR and TVA) of each sample so the results could be more
accurate (Aprillia, 2020).
Researchers used different t-test technique with paired sample
to analyze hypothesis 1 of significant differences in AR before and after the
first announcement of 2019 Corona Virus Disease event in Indonesia. Where the
stages to test hypothesis 1 are: 1) Perform daily stock return calculations to look
for Rit. 2) Calculate the expected return adjusted to the level of
risk of the stock (CAPM). 3) Perform abnormal return calculations from each
sample. 4) Calculate the statistical description of AR before and after the
events of each sample. 5) Perform a sample t-test paired with a significance
level of α 0.05. 6) Decides H0 and Ha.7) Determines whether to approve H0
(if sig. > of the significance level α (0.05)), or refuse H0 and
approve H1 or Ha (if sig. < from the significance level α (0.05) (Faulan, 2020).
While the technique used by researchers to analyze
hypothesis 2 related to significant differences in TVA before and after the
announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease 2019 infection in Indonesia are
using different test t test with paired sample. Where the test stages of
hypothesis 2 are: 1) Determine the TVA of each sample in the event window. 2)
Perform a calculation of TVA statistical descriptions before and after the
occurrence of each sample. 3) Perform a paired t test at a significant rate of
α 0.05. 4) Decide on H0 and Ha. 5)�
Determine whether to approve H0 (if sig. > of the significance level
α (0.05)), or refuse H0 and approve H1 or Ha if sig. < from the
significance level α (0.05) (Fajriani, 2021).
The
involvement of researchers in the data collection technique in this study is minimal
because the source of this study data comes from secondary data, namely daily
stock closing price data and daily stock trading volume that can be obtained
from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Where the study setting in this study is
non-contrived, in which the research is carried out in the normal environment
activities.
The
population in this study are telecommunications sector company listed on the
Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Where the public need for internet services
provided by telecommunication companies increased during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Therefore researchers wanted to examine whether there
were significant differences in AR and TVA telecommunications sector companies
before and after the announcement of the first Covid infection in Indonesia.
The population in this study consists of 6 companies in telecommunications
sector on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely Bakrie Telecom Tbk. (BTEL), XL Axiata Tbk.
(EXCL), Smartfren Telecom Tbk.
(FREN), Indosat Tbk.
(ISAT), Jasnita Telekomindo
Tbk. (JAST) and Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. (TLKM). The sample that will be used in this study are
EXCL, ISAT and TLKM, considering that the three companies have relatively the
same stock price range that are in the range of thousands, unlike BTEL whose
stock price tends to stagnate in the tens range and FREN and JAST whose share
price ranges are in the hundreds.
The time
horizon or time dimension specified in this study is longitudinal studies,
which means the study was measured at several points of time using the same
sample, -90 exchange before the announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease
2019 infection in Indonesia on March 2, 2020, namely October 22, 2019 and +90
exchange days after the announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease 2019
infection in Indonesia, July 16, 2020.
Results and Discussions
A. Description Statistic Test Analysis
After the calculation of Abnormal Return and TVA of each
sample using secondary data and formulas that have been submitted on
theoretical review, the results will be used to test statistical descriptions to
find out the lowest, highest, mean and standard deviation values of AR and TVA
before and after the announcement of first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia. The
results of the description statistic test can be seen in tables 1 and 2, as
follows.
Table 1
Statistical Description Test of AR
|
|
N |
Minimum |
Maximum |
Mean |
Std. Deviation |
|
|
TLKM |
AR Before |
90 |
-0,0231908 |
0,0396121 |
0,006866153 |
0,016106135 |
|
AR After |
90 |
-0,2642194 |
0,1245318 |
0,002363389 |
0,050573131 |
|
|
ISAT |
AR Before |
90 |
-0,0761463 |
0,1262432 |
0,028241644 |
0,033211278 |
|
AR After |
90 |
-0,1743374 |
0,1627799 |
0,016133408 |
0,061829847 |
|
|
EXCL |
AR Before |
90 |
-0,0327514 |
0,0713995 |
0,013524156 |
0,022268237 |
|
AR After |
90 |
-0,1787594 |
0,1363195 |
0,005163464 |
0,057876243 |
|
Source: Secondary data processed, 2021
Table 1 is the result of statistical description of the Variable
Abnormal Return (AR), where the data shows that in TLKM AR, the lowest value
before the first Covid-19 infection announced in Indonesia was -0.0231908, with
the highest value of 0.0396121, the mean value of 0.006866153 and the standard
deviation of 0.016106135. While at the time after the announcement of the first
Covid-19 infection in Indonesia the minimum variable value of TLKM AR became
-0.2642194, with a maximum value of 0.1245318, an average value of 0.002363389 and
standard deviation of 0.050573131. TLKM AR analysis shows deviations from the
average variable, where the standard deviation value is higher than the mean
variable value.� In addition, the
difference between the minimum and maximum of TLKM AR which before (0.0628029)
and after (0.3887512) the announced the first Covid-19 case became even
greater, indicating that there are increasing in volatility of TLKM AR after
the announcement of the first infection of Corona Virus Disease 2019 in
Indonesia.
In AR EXCL, the minimum value before the announcement of the
first Corona Virus Disease 2019 infection in Indonesia was -0.0327514, with a
top value of 0.0713995, mean value of 0.013524156 and standard deviation of
0.022268237. While at the time after the announcement of the first Covid-19
infection in Indonesia the lowest value of variable EXCL AR to -0.1787594, with
top value of 0.1363195, mean value of 0.005163464 and standard deviation of
0.057876243. This analysis of AR EXCL shows deviation from the average value of
the variable, where the standard deviation value is higher than the mean
variable value.� In addition, the
difference between the minimum and maximum EXCL AR value range, before
(0.1041509) and after (0.3150789) was announced the first Covid-19 infection became
even greater, indicating a higher volatility in EXCL AR after the announcement
of the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia.
If we examined the difference between the minimum and
maximum AR value ranges of TLKM, ISAT and EXCL before and after Indonesia
announced the first case of Covid-19 infection, it can be seen that TLKM AR has
the largest range of values where the difference between the AR values before
and after are 0.3259483, followed by EXCL and ISAT. This shows that TLKM AR are
more affected and impacted from the announcement of the first Covid-19
infection in Indonesia.
Table 2
Statistical Description Test of Trading Volume Activity
|
|
N |
Minimum |
Maximum |
Mean |
Std. Deviation |
|
|
TLKM |
TVA Before |
90 |
-0,6171523 |
1,8817440 |
0,099525807 |
0,524941469 |
|
TVA After |
90 |
-0,6575865 |
2,1070497 |
0,096137221 |
0,473505932 |
|
|
ISAT |
TVA Before |
90 |
-0,8405688 |
7,1990645 |
0,252968800 |
0,958530933 |
|
TVA After |
90 |
-0,9724056 |
23,6168653 |
0,592018667 |
2,88868312 |
|
|
EXCL |
TVA Before |
90 |
-0,8633256 |
8,8173790 |
0,202268262 |
1,07549031 |
|
TVA After |
90 |
-0,8862110 |
2,6864118 |
0,143306553 |
0,576880960 |
|
Source: Secondary data processed,
2021
Table 2 are
the result of statistical description test of Trading Volume Activity (TVA)
variable, where the data shows that for TLKM TVA, the minimum value before the
announcement of the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia is -0.6171523 and the
highest value is 1.8817440, the mean value is 0.099525807 and the standard
deviation is 0.524941469. While at the time after the announcement of the first
Covid-19 infection in Indonesia the minimum variable value of TLKM TVA became
-0.6575865, with a maximum value of 2.1070497, a mean value of 0.096137221 and
a standard deviation of 0.473505932. This TLKM TVA analysis shows the deviation
from the average variable, which the standard deviation value is greater than
the average value of the variable. In addition, the difference between the
minimum and maximum value range of TLKM TVA, before (2.4988963) and after
(2.7646362) announced of first Covid-19 case became even greater, this indicates
the increasing volatility in TLKM TVA after the announcement of the first Corona
Virus Disease 2019 infection in Indonesia.
For TVA EXCL,
the minimum value before the announcement of the first Covid-19 infection in
Indonesia was -0.86333256 and the highest value was 8.8173790, the mean value
was 0.202268262 and the standard deviation was 1.07549031. While at the time
after the announcement of the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia the minimum
variable value of TVA EXCL became -0.8862110, with a maximum value of
2.6864118, a mean value of 0.143306553 and a standard deviation of 0.5768880960.
This TVA EXCL analysis shows deviation from the average variable, where the standard
deviation value is higher than the mean variable value.� In addition, the difference between the
minimum and maximum value range of TVA EXCL, before (9.68071156) and after
(3.5726228) the announcement of the first Covid-19 infection became even greater,
indicating lower volatility in EXCL TVA after the announcement of the first
Covid-19 infection in Indonesia.
When
examined the difference between the minimum and maximum value ranges of TVA
TLKM, ISAT and EXCL before and after Indonesia announced the first case of
Corona Virus Disease infection 2019, it can be seen that ISAT TVA has the
largest range of values where the difference between the values of TVA range
before and after is 16.5496376, followed by TLKM of 0.2657399. This proves that
ISAT TVA increased more significantly after the announcement of the first
Covid-19 infection in Indonesia. Unlike EXCL whose TVA value range decreased
after the announcement of the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia, it indicates
the trading volume activity tends to be decreased.
Hypothesis Test
Testing of hypothesis 1 and
hypothesis 2 will be done as follows:
H0������ :���������� 1� =�
2
H1������ :���������� 1� ≠ 2
H0 is accepted if the significance
level is higher than α (0.05), but H0 is rejected if the significance
level is smaller than α (0.05).
1. First Hypothesis
In the first hypothesis it is stated
that there are significant difference in AR of
telecommunication companies shares before and after the announcement of the
first corona virus disease case in Indonesia. To find out the value of
significance in the first hypothesis, the t test is performed using pair sample
with significance level α of 0.05, the results found are:
Table 3
AR Paired Sample Test
|
|
|
Paired Differences |
|
Significance |
||||
|
Mean |
Std. Deviation |
Std. Error Means |
95% Confidence Interval of the Difference |
t |
Two-Sided p |
|||
|
Lower |
Upper |
|||||||
|
Pair 1 |
AR TLKM
Before & After |
0,004502764 |
0,055364753 |
0,005835957 |
-0,00709316 |
0,016098687 |
0,772 |
0,442 |
|
Pair 2 |
AR ISAT
Before & After |
0,012108235 |
0,073670956 |
0,007765601 |
-0,00332185 |
0,027538319 |
1,559 |
0,122 |
|
Pair 3 |
AR EXCL
Before & After |
0,008360691 |
0,064378034 |
0,006786041 |
-0,00512303 |
0,021844409 |
1,232 |
0,221 |
Source: Secondary data processed, 2021
From the results of the AR paired
test which can be concluded in Table 3, the significant level of the three
samples are higher than 0.05, where TLKM had a
significance level of 0.442 with t count value of 0.772, while ISAT showed a significant
level of 0.122 with t count value of 1.559 and EXCL had a significance level of
0.221 with t count value of 1.232. Based on these results, we can see that
there was no significant difference in the three samples, therefore it can be
concluded that H0 of telecommunications sector companies (TLKM, ISAT and EXCL)
abnormal return before and after the announcement of first case of Corona Virus
Disease 2019 infection in Indonesia are accepted. Therefore, the first hypothesis
is rejected
2. Second Hypothesis
In the second hypothesis it is mentioned that there are
significant differences in TVA shares of telecommunications sector companies
before and after the announcement of the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia.
To find out the value of significance in the second hypothesis, the paired t
test is performed at a significance level of α 0.05, so that the following
results are found:
Table 4
TVA Related Sample Test
|
|
|
Paired Differences |
|
Significance |
||||
|
Mean |
Std. Deviation |
Std. Error Means |
95% Confidence Interval of the
Difference |
t |
Two-Sided p |
|||
|
Lower |
Upper |
|||||||
|
Pair 1 |
TVA TLKM Before & After |
0,003388586 |
0,674122381 |
0,071058738 |
-0,13780361 |
0,144580785 |
0,048 |
0,962 |
|
Pair 2 |
TVA ISAT Before & After |
-0,33904987 |
3,03224535 |
0,319626725 |
-0,97414136 |
0,296041627 |
-1,061 |
0,292 |
|
Pair 3 |
TVA EXCL Before & After |
0,058961709 |
1,18527928 |
0,124939406 |
-0,18929023 |
0,307213648 |
0,472 |
0,638 |
Source: Secondary data
processed, 2021
From the results of the Trading Volume Activity paired test
as seen in Table 4, the significant level of the three samples tested also
showed a significant value higher than 0.05, where TLKM had a significance
level of 0.962 with t count value of 0.048, while ISAT showed a significant
level of 0.292 with a t count value of -1.061 and EXCL had a significant level
of 0.638 with a t count value of 0.472. Therefore, based on the results of the
paired sample test from these three samples it can be concluded that H0 is
accepted where there are no significant difference in
TVA shares of telecommunication sector companies (TLKM, ISAT and EXCL) before
and after the announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease 2019 infection in
Indonesia. Thus the second hypothesis was also
rejected.
1.
First Hypothesis
Based on the results of statistical
tests and paired sample t tests that have been conducted on the first
hypothesis, it was found that there was no significant difference in the AR of
telecommunication companies shares (TLKM, ISAT and EXCL) before and after
Indonesia announced the first case of Covid-19 infection. This proves that the emergence
of the Corona Virus Disease pandemic 2019 will not have a major impact on the
performance of telecommunication companies in Indonesia. Especially during the
implementation of Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) and the Enactment of
Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM), where people are asked to be able to
carry out activities and remain productive at home, so that internet services
become a new staple in the pandemic period. The results of this study support
an article written by (Niaz et al., 2021), where
telecommunication companies such as Telkom recorded an increase in customer
numbers and revenue in 2020 compared to 2019.
However, the average value of
abnormal returns on telecommunications company shares decreased although it is
not significant if we compare before and after Indonesia announced the first
case of Covid-19 infection. Where the mean value of TLKM before the
announcement of the first Covid-19 case in Indonesia is positive 0.006866153
while after it was announced positive 0.002363389. Similarly with ISAT and EXCL
which show decrease in the mean value from the previous positive 0.028241644 to
positive 0.016133408 and positive 0.016133408 to positive 0.013524156.
According to (Firli & Rahadian, 2020), positive AR proves that the actual return obtained is
higher than the expected return. In accordance with the performance of the
three telecommunications companies, three of them were show growth of revenue
during the pandemic period which result positive abnormally returns to investors
even though it is not significant (Basmar et al., 2021).
2.
Second Hypothesis
The results of statistical and
paired sample t tests to the second hypothesis proved that there was no
significant difference in TVA of telecommunication companies shares before and
after Indonesia announced their first case of Corona Virus Disease. This indicates
that there is no panic selling action on the telecommunications companies
shares after the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia. Which can be seen from
the mean value of the three telecommunications company TVA that did not experience
significant changes, for example TLKM whose mean value before the announcement
of the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia was at the position of 0.099525807
and afterwards at the position of 0.096137221, as well as ISAT and EXCL.
In accordance with what (Hardiyanti et al., 2021)
said, that if the price and trading volume of the stock did not experience a
significant difference, it indicates that the stock trend has not changed. In
this case there is no significant difference in AR and TVA in telecommunication
companies in Indonesia, it can be concluded that the stock trend of
telecommunication companies in Indonesia has not changed before and after
Indonesia announced the first case of Corona Virus Disease infection. The
results found in this study also contradict the results of studies from (Hardiyanti et al., 2021)
and (Machmuddah et al., 2020)
which found significant differences in stock trading volume before and after
the announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease in Indonesia.
Conclusion
The purpose
of this study is to understand if there are abnormal differences in AR and TVA
of telecommunication companies before and after the first announcement of
Corona Virus Disease in Indonesia. Based on the results of the paired sample
test conducted in this study, it can be concluded that for hypothesis 1
researchers found no significant difference in AR of telecommunication sector
companies shares included on the Indonesia Stock Exchange before and after the
announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease in Indonesia. This proves that
the performance of Indonesian telecommunication companies is not affected by
the Covid-19 pandemic, where the need for internet and telecommunication services
is actually become the basic need for people to remain productive from home.
This is reflected in the performance of these three telecommunications companies
(TLKM, ISAT and EXCL) which can still record positive growth of revenue during
pandemic period, which resulting in positive abnormal positive although it is not
significant.
Similarly,
for hypothesis 2, where researchers found no significant difference in TVA of
telecommunication companies shares included on Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX)
before and after the announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease in Indonesia.
This shows that there is no panic selling action in telecommunication companies
shares after the announcement of the first Covid-19 infection in Indonesia.
However, the results found in this study contradict to the results of previous
researchers, who found significant differences in stock trading volume before
and after the announcement of the first Corona Virus Disease 2019 infection in
Indonesia.
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Dewi Tamara, Purba Yudha
Tama, William (2021) |
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